보도일시	2010. 4. 14(수) 배포시
배포일시	2010. 4. 14(수)	담당부서	국제금융국 국제금융과
담당과장	손병두 (2150-4710)	담 당 자	범진완 사무관(2150-4713)

제목: 무디스社, 국가신용등급 상향 조정(A2→A1)

1. 주요내용

'10.4.14(수), Moody's社는 등급위원회(rating committee)를 개최하여 우리나라의 신용등급을 A2→A1으로 상향조정하였음

ㅇ 무디스의 이번 등급 상향은 3대 신평사중에서 처음으로 외환위기 이전 수준의 등급을 회복한 것임

Moody's는 금번 등급 상향의 주요 이유로 빠른 경제회복, 정부의 신속한 대응, 건전재정 및 금융기관의 건전성 개선 등을 들었음

ㅇ 글로벌 금융위기에 대해 한국 정부의 금융 및 재정정책이 신속하고 적절하게 이루어졌으며,

ㅇ 경상수지 흑자, 단기외채 감소 및 2,700억불 이상의 외환보유액 확충 등으로 대외채무 상환불능 우려가 현저하게 개선되었으며

ㅇ 지정학적 위험과 관련, 굳건한 한․미동맹 및 한반도 안정에 대한 중국의 역할 등으로 남북관계가 등급 상향을 저해하지 않는 요인으로 평가

2. 등급전망 상향조정의 의의 및 효과

글로벌 금융위기 상황에서도 우리나라의 등급이 상향되었다는 데 큰 의미가 있음

ㅇ 3대 신평사중 처음으로 외환위기 이전 수준의 등급을 회복

ㅇ 금융위기 이후 회복속도, 재정건전성 등에서 높은 등급 국가들과 차별화된 모습이 부각된 것이 주요 이유

ㅇ 글로벌 경제위기를 우리나라가 성공적으로 대처해 나갔다는 점을 대외적으로 인정받는 계기

- 최근 선진국도 금융위기 영향으로 등급(전망)이 하향되었다는 점에서, 우리정부의 대응을 높게 평가한 것임

ㅇ 또한 G20 정상회의 개최 등 국제사회에서의 우리나라의 경제적 위상이 제고로 신용등급 상향에 긍정적 영향

ㅇ 특히 천안함 침몰에도 불구, 시장이 차분한 반응을 보였다는 점이 높게 평가 받은 것으로 분석

국내금융기관 신용등급(전망) 및 해외차입 여건 개선 기대

ㅇ 국가신용등급 전망의 상향조정으로 우리나라 금융기관들의 등급 혹은 전망에도 긍정적 영향을 줄 것으로 기대

ㅇ 국가리스크 감소에 따른 대외 신인도 제고로 금융기관 및 기업의 해외자금조달 여건이 크게 개선될 것으로 예상

ㅇ 또한 해외투자자의 투자심리를 개선하여 주식 및 채권시장에도 긍정적으로 작용할 것으로 전망

기획재정부 대변인

<참고1> Moody's 발표 원문

Singapore, April 14, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed South Korea's government bond ratings to A1 from A2 and maintains a stable outlook.

"The change has been prompted by Korea's demonstration of an exceptional level of economic resilience to the global crisis, while containing the government's budget deficit," says Tom Byrne, a Moody's Senior Vice President. The Korean economy is responding rapidly to the improving global economic environment, and the government has put in place supportive policy measures which should help sustain economic growth over time.

Moody's rating action also includes moving the ceiling applied to foreign currency bonds issued in Korea to Aa2 from Aa3, and moving the ceiling applied to foreign currency bank-deposits to A1 from A2. The local-currency bond and bank deposit ceilings remain at Aa1.

"The resiliency of Korea's economy was evident in its ability to withstand relatively well the contractionary forces which emanated from the global recession," says Byrne. "Its highly open economy eked out a positive 0.2 percent gain in 2009, and is likely to stage a robust recovery with a 5 percent-growth rate in 2010, even as fiscal stimulus measures are wound down." The eventual exit from a very accommodative monetary policy may, however, temper growth momentum in the next 1-2 years. Furthermore, the global financial crisis has not resulted in a large increase in central government debt, which remains at a moderate level, while the fiscal deficit in 2009 was relatively small. "Such achievements place Korea in a favorable position when compared with most other A-rated countries."

As such, Moody's sees a strong likelihood that the government will succeed in its medium-term fiscal strategy of eliminating its deficit in the next 2-3 years.

At the same time, the vulnerabilities exposed during the height of the global financial crisis - namely, the banking system's partial reliance on off-shore funding - are being addressed and reduced. Regulatory measures have recently been introduced to reduce other risks arising from the banks' relatively high loan-to-deposit ratios over a multi-year period. Nonetheless, the overall soundness of the banking sector's domestic operations will facilitate the economic recovery and help to anchor future economic prospects.

External vulnerabilities have been further reduced by the broad scope of the recovery. Rebounding from the deleveraging and credit market shocks of 2008, official foreign exchange reserves have risen to a historical high of $270 billion, and the current account is likely to remain in surplus this year.

However, Moody's notes that demographic challenges will arise in the next 10-15 years. In the meantime, assets in the National Pension system -- already at a sizable level of around one-fourth of GDP-- will continue to grow robustly over that time horizon and perhaps even beyond.

Rating concerns center on two factors, one of which is the rise in broader public-sector debt, mostly of state-owned corporations, in recent years. Although this development has not yet imposed a burden on the central government's balance sheet -- owing to the maintenance of a positive net-income position even at the depth of the downturn -- public-sector finances warrant scrutiny in the context of plausible future and unforeseen adverse scenarios.

The other and more salient concern is the level of event risk posed by North Korea, which could undermine the South's strong core credit fundamentals. The Six-Party negotiations which aim to rid the North of its nuclear weapons program remains deadlocked. And the possibilities of military provocations which threaten regional peace are always present.

These concerns are counterbalanced by Korea's robust alliance with the United States and shared interests among

regional powers for stability on the peninsula. Such a constellation of forces will be crucial in restraining North Korean provocative behavior. China is also likely to play an increasingly important role in ensuring stability on the peninsula,given its close ties with Pyongyang and its strategic regional interests.

Moreover, in the event of a positive transformation of the regime in Pyongyang, the future fiscal cost of engagement or stabilization of the North would be manageable and consistent with the Republic of Korea's ratings. That said, the scenario of a catastrophic collapse of the North cannot be totally dismissed, although this is the nature of event risk that by definition is very difficult to predict with much foresight and to quantify precisely.

For Korea's ratings to move up further, Moody's would look for continued robust economic performance, continued improvement in institutional strengths and greater containment of, if not a reduction in, geopolitical event risk.

Moody's previous rating action on Korea was on September 7, 2009 whent the local currency bond ceiling was realigned to Aa1 from Aaa. The principal methodology that Moody's uses in rating the Republic of Korea is its Sovereign Bond Ratings

Methodology published in September 2008 and available on www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies subdirectory under the Research & Ratings tab.

Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodology sub-directory on Moody's web site.

Press releases of other ratings affected by this action will follow separately.

London

Pierre Cailleteau

Managing Director

Sovereign Risk Group

Moody's Investors Service

JOURNALISTS:

SUBSCRIBERS:

Singapore

Thomas J. Byrne

Senior Vice President - Regional Credit Officer

Sovereign Risk Group

Moody's Singapore Pte Ltd.

JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150

SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308

New York

Steven A. Hess

VP - Senior Credit Officer

Sovereign Risk Group

Moody's Investors Service

JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376

SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

<참고 2> 우리나라의 국가신용등급 추이

	S&P(21등급)	Moody's(21등급)	Fitch (24등급)
투자적격	AAA	Aaa	AAA
	AA+ AA AA-[외환위기前]	Aa1 Aa2 Aa3	AA+ AA AA- [외환위기前]
	A+ A (현재, 05.7.27) A- (02.7.24)	A1 [외환위기前], 10.4.14 A2 A3 (02.3)	A+ (현재, 05.10.24) A (02.6.27) A-
	BBB+ (01.11.13) BBB (99.11.11) BBB- (99.1.25)	Baa1 Baa2 (99.12.16) Baa3 (99.2.12)	BBB+ (00.3.30) BBB (99.6.24) BBB- (99.1.19)
투자부적격	BB+ (98.2.18) BB BB-	Ba1 (97.12.31) Ba2 Ba3	BB+ (98.2.2) BB BB-
	B+ (97.12.23) B B-	B1 B2 B3	B+ B B- (97.12.23)
	CCC+ CCC CCC-	Caa1 Caa2 Caa3	CCC+ CCC CCC-
	CC	Ca	CC
	D(SD)	C	C
			DDD DD D